According to Citrini Research, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's largest DRAM manufacturer, is on track to match Micron's memory production capacity by 2026. If realized, this would make Ch... Read original →
Industry Analysis
CXMT’s near-parity with Micron by 2026 isn’t just about wafer volume—it’s a stress test of China’s ability to scale without EUV. While targeting 350K WSPM, CXMT remains locked out of sub-17nm DRAM due to lithography constraints; SMEE and SiCarrier’s immersion DUV tools won’t support HBM4E/5 until the early 2030s. Government-mandated tech sharing with JHICC and YMTC risks yield instability and IP leakage. Samsung and SK hynix will likely counter with aggressive DDR5/HBM pricing while securing U.S.-aligned capacity. Over the next 12–24 months, a looming 30%+ global DRAM supply gap means China’s output—though largely domestic—will erode foreign pricing power and expose the strategic cost of decoupling.