Industry Analysis
ASE’s >20% price hike in advanced packaging signals a structural shift: backend processes are no longer supporting actors but critical bottlenecks for AI chip delivery. Technically, CoWoS and FoCoS shortages are accelerating adoption of HBM stacking, chiplet interconnects, and FOPLP, while forcing redesigns in probing and thermal solutions. Geopolitically, ASE’s heavy reliance on U.S. clients heightens exposure to export control spillovers, especially given its Taiwan, China-based capacity. Competitively, TSMC’s CoWoS constraints create openings for SPIL, KYEC, and Powertech to capture overflow demand, potentially fostering regional packaging alliances. Over the next 18 months, capex will concentrate on 2.5D/3D integration, sharply raising entry barriers—OSATs without anchor AI customers risk exclusion from the high-end supply chain.
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