Nomura Research Report Analysis: Lumentum Earnings Confirm Persistent Optical Chip Shortage, Chinese Suppliers Welcome… - 深潮TechFlow

Nomura’s latest research report confirms that Lumentum’s Q4 FY26 financial results further validate the structural trend of global optical chip supply shortages. Lumentum’s Q2 FY26 revenue surged 109%... Read original →

The global optical chip shortage has evolved from a temporary supply-demand imbalance into a structural constraint, as confirmed by Lumentum’s latest financials. Surge in EML laser demand, especially for 100G and 200G products, underscores sustained growth in AI data center applications. CW lasers are gaining traction in silicon photonics, narrowing the performance gap with EML, though EML remains the dominant technology. NPO and CPO technologies are nearing commercialization, poised to reshape the optical interconnect landscape. Chinese suppliers like InnoLight and TFC Optical are well-positioned to capture market share, but their success hinges on supply chain resilience and R&D execution. Geopolitical tensions are driving foreign clients to prioritize supply chain security, accelerating domestic substitution. Over the next 12–24 months, the optical chip market will enter a phase of high growth and concentration, with technological divergence and localization trends shaping value dynamics. Leading firms will define the new competitive landscape.