Industry Analysis
Zhang Rujing’s warning exposes China’s dangerous 'node obsession': chasing 2nm/3nm is not only technically blocked by EUV export bans but economically unsustainable. Technically, this fixation drains R&D from mature nodes critical for automotive and industrial MCUs—high-margin segments where China could gain real self-sufficiency. Compliance-wise, U.S. sanctions have already inflated SMIC’s equipment maintenance costs by over 30%; pushing further into advanced nodes amplifies supply chain fragility. TSMC and Samsung will likely deepen AI chip partnerships with NVIDIA and Qualcomm, locking in an 'advanced node–algorithm–ecosystem' moat that erodes global trust in Chinese foundries. Over the next 12–24 months, the real tailwind lies in redefining manufacturing around application-specific value—power ICs, CIS, and specialty processes—not transistor density. China’s breakthrough won’t come from Moore’s Law, but from system-level economics.
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