China’s Semiconductor Bottlenecks Are Disappearing - RealClearDefense

This Sinolytics analysis offers a sobering reassessment of China's semiconductor localization trajectory, arguing that the Western policy debate is dangerously fixated on a single variable—EUV lithogr... Read original →

The West's fixation on EUV as the sole chokepoint in semiconductor policy is a strategic blind spot. The real shift has already propagated across the value chain: domestic photoresist qualification at CXMT and SMIC, SiCarrier's operational scale in etch and deposition—substitution is no longer theoretical. More critically, as Moore's Law decelerates, advanced packaging and system-level integration are gaining weight over node shrinkage, and China's deepest accumulation sits precisely there. Yet ion implantation and metrology remain structurally weak, and domestic substitution often merely shifts dependency one tier upstream to Japanese and American components. The export-control paradox is stark: it accelerates the very localization it seeks to prevent while hemorrhaging the R&D revenue base of allied firms. The 18-month inflection point won't be 2nm—it will be 2.5D/3D packaging yield and HBM supply-chain closure. Whoever achieves full-stack synergy across materials, equipment, and process first claims the next compute-race entry ticket. Out-innovate, not out-restrict: the harder path, but the only one that compounds.