Industry Analysis
Aletheia’s NT$3,500 price target on TSMC isn’t just bullish on capacity—it signals a structural shift from monolithic logic chips to heterogeneous integration. CoWoS is the near-term bottleneck, forcing rapid co-optimization across equipment and advanced packaging; SoIC and CoPoS will redefine HPC cost curves by 2027–2028. Geopolitically, delayed U.S. CHIPS Act disbursements and tighter Dutch EUV controls inflate TSMC’s overseas compliance costs, yet its Taiwan-based 3nm EUV cluster remains irreplaceable. Samsung and Intel’s 2nm pushes lag in yield maturity and client trust. Over the next 12–24 months, TSMC’s real edge lies not in wafer volume but in setting the ‘system-foundry’ standard for AI—control over chiplet interconnects and thermal protocols equals pricing power.
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