Industry Analysis
The HBM expansion slowdown by Korean foundries reflects AI capex rationalization, not collapsing demand. Marvell’s dip stems from market overreaction to transitional volatility between HBM3E and HBM4 ramp cycles. Technically, SK Hynix’s pivot to commodity DRAM delays CoWoS ecosystem maturity, throttling adoption of Marvell’s high-speed SerDes and die-to-die interconnect IP. On the compliance front, pending U.S. memory export controls could force redesigns of reference architectures for clients in Taiwan, China and Korea, inflating R&D amortization. Samsung and Micron will aggressively seize HBM share—Micron especially via GDDR7 as a hedge. Over the next 18 months, the sector faces de-bubbling: only full-stack players integrating PHY, controller, and security engines will survive. This correction signals structural realignment, not an AI demand inflection.
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