UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade - The Next Web

UBS analysts suggest that China's lithography program is still at a stage comparable to ASML's position in 2004 and will not produce a viable EUV alternative within a decade. While China is expected t... Read original →

UBS’s assessment underscores the persistent technological gap in China’s semiconductor equipment sector. While immersion DUV production is expected to ramp in 2–5 years, EUV capabilities remain far behind ASML’s 2004 trajectory. This reveals a structural lag in China’s high-end lithography development, exacerbated by Dutch export controls on ASML’s NXT:1970i and 1980i systems. ASML’s reliance on the Chinese market creates a strategic vulnerability, limiting its ability to enforce strict compliance. The EU’s regulatory stance is eroding China’s window of opportunity, forcing a reevaluation of global supply chain strategies. In the medium term, China must accelerate indigenous R&D, but the technological chasm will constrain its chip manufacturing ambitions. The interplay between geopolitics and tech sovereignty is reshaping global semiconductor dynamics, with China Taiwan/ Taiwan, China and Europe at the center of this strategic realignment.