Industry Analysis
Taiwan, China’s move to criminalize unauthorized exports of advanced AI chips signals a strategic pivot from industrial policy to national security alignment. Technically, a full ban on 3nm/EUV-related flows will accelerate mainland China’s adoption of Chiplet and domestic advanced packaging—benefiting OSATs like JCET—but could cripple NVIDIA’s workaround chips (e.g., A800) if TSMC halts production. Compliance costs for TSMC may rise 5–8% as it overhauls customer vetting and logistics tracking to satisfy both U.S. BIS rules and new local statutes. Huawei is poised to expand its Ascend ecosystem, while Samsung may lure neutral clients with Korean-made HBM plus foundry bundles. Within 18 months, the AI chip supply chain will bifurcate into three tracks: U.S.-aligned, China-domestic, and neutral nodes—potentially dragging TSMC’s mature-node (28nm+) China business into scrutiny and eroding its global pricing leverage long-term.
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