Industry Analysis
Huawei’s 'Her’s Law' is a strategic detour under U.S. tech sanctions—lacking EUV access, it pivots to 3D integration and system-level performance gains. Yet TSMC (Taiwan, China) insists transistor scaling remains irreplaceable, citing 30% energy efficiency gains unattainable via packaging alone. This divergence will reshape the upstream stack: EDA, TSV, and hybrid bonding tools gain urgency, while mainland foundries like SMIC double down on Chiplet ecosystems above 28nm. The ESMC Dresden fab (ramping in 2029) reflects Europe’s sovereignty-driven hedge against supply shocks. Over the next 18 months, the industry bifurcates: U.S.-aligned players advance CFET/GAA to extend Moore’s Law, while sanctioned entities build EUV-free heterogeneous integration standards. If Her’s Law anchors China’s national roadmap, it risks fragmenting the global semiconductor ecosystem into incompatible technical spheres.
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