TSMC 3nm capacity still tight, prices seen rising 15% in second half of 2026 - TechNode

Despite ramping up 3nm monthly capacity to 160,000–175,000 wafers in Q2, TSMC still cannot meet strong customer demand, leading to significant backlogs, according to supply chain sources. Industry ins... Read original →

TSMC’s persistent 3nm capacity crunch reveals a structural bottleneck in the global semiconductor ecosystem. Technically, soaring EUV layer counts have raised yield barriers, forcing customers to pre-commit wafer allocations and amplifying demand for 2nm nodes and CoWoS packaging. On compliance, U.S. CHIPS Act mandates for localized capacity are inflating TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fab costs, eroding pricing flexibility. Samsung’s GAA-based 3nm ramp remains hampered by yield issues, limiting its ability to capture overflow; Intel IFS is bundling x86 IP with foundry services to lock in niche clients. Over the next 12–24 months, the 15% price surge will accelerate chiplet adoption in AI accelerators and push second-tier foundries like SMIC toward mature-node specialization—cementing a winner-takes-all dynamic in advanced logic manufacturing.