TSMC 3nm capacity still tight, prices seen rising 15% in second half of 2026 - Longbridge

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) continues to face tight capacity constraints in its 3nm process, despite ramping up monthly output to 160,000–175,000 wafers in Q2. Supply chain sourc... Read original →

TSMC’s 3nm capacity crunch and planned 15% price hike stem from the collision between surging AI chip demand and fundamental limits of advanced lithography. Technically, EUV multi-patterning is hitting diminishing returns in throughput and yield, forcing clients like NVIDIA to co-design architectures around guaranteed wafer allocation—intensifying pressure on EDA and IP ecosystems. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls delay critical tool deliveries to Taiwan, China, inflating hidden operational costs and supply chain fragility. Competitively, Samsung and Intel’s aggressive 2nm roadmaps lack volume validation, leaving them financially exposed without displacing TSMC’s dominance. Over the next 12–24 months, this will accelerate a bifurcation: leading customers secure capacity via prepayments or joint ventures, while smaller players retreat to mature nodes—deepening polarization across the foundry landscape.