TSMC 3nm, 2nm, and CoWoS stay tight as AWS, MediaTek, TPU shift capacity

The persistent shortage of TSMC's advanced nodes underscores a fundamental imbalance in the global AI chip supply chain. Nvidia and Apple's dominance over 3nm and 2nm capacity intensifies the supply risk for competitors like AWS and MediaTek. AWS's expanded Ampere chip ramp signals a strategic push in data center AI compute, yet forces TSMC to reallocate resources. Technologically, this accelerates adoption of CoWoS packaging, but constrains delivery timelines. Geopolitically, tightening U.S. export controls on China, including China Taiwan/ Taiwan, China, compel TSMC to navigate complex customer strategies, potentially spurring local supply chain self-reliance. In competitive dynamics, Samsung and GlobalFoundries may accelerate investments to capture market share. Over the next 12-24 months, sustained AI demand could force TSMC to boost capacity utilization, but supply chain resilience will be severely tested.