Industry Analysis
Trump’s endorsement of Micron backfired, revealing deep market skepticism over memory valuations. Technically, the HBM3E-to-HBM4 transition intensifies TSV and stacking bottlenecks—Micron lags Samsung by at least one generation in advanced packaging despite NVIDIA alignment. Compliance-wise, CHIPS Act mandates inflate CapEx through forced U.S. capacity localization, while constraints on mature-node output from Taiwan, China erode cost leverage. Rivals are circling: Samsung expands HBM dominance in AI servers, while Western Digital and Kioxia accelerate QLC NAND consolidation. Over the next 12–24 months, without breakthroughs in CoWoS compatibility or CPO integration, Micron’s 'AI memory' narrative risks collapse, triggering sustained multiple compression.
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