The iShares Semiconductor ETF Is Obliterating the S&P 500 in 2026, but Is It Still a Buy? The Answer Might Surprise You. - The Motley Fool

In 2026, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has delivered an extraordinary return of 108%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 10% gain. This performance is largely driven by its concentrated hold... Read original →

SOXX’s 108% surge in 2026 reflects capital markets pricing in the AI compute arms race. Technologically, surging HBM and advanced packaging demand is forcing equipment makers like Lam and KLA to accelerate post-EUV process development, inflating foundry premiums in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong, China. Regulatory tightening on semiconductor exports to China has pushed firms like Micron to reconfigure supply chains, adding 15–20% to operational costs. Strategically, Intel is leveraging U.S. subsidies to fast-track its 18A node and poach AI CPU/GPU orders from AMD and NVIDIA, while Qualcomm exploits power-efficiency advantages to erode GPU dominance in edge AI. Over the next 12–24 months, mass production of HBM4 by Samsung and SK Hynix will reverse the memory pricing cycle, undermining current profit models built on supply scarcity. SOXX remains a strong long-term vehicle, but its valuation already prices in 2027 fundamentals—investors must extend horizons to absorb near-term volatility from capacity ramp-ups.