Industry Analysis
TSMC’s pullback reflects a necessary correction after AI-driven exuberance, yet its 3nm and EUV capacity remains the bedrock of global compute infrastructure. Technically, any slowdown in TSMC’s ramp impacts downstream players like MediaTek and Alchip, inadvertently aiding Samsung and Intel in their 2nm client poaching. On compliance, delayed U.S. CHIPS Act disbursements and tightening export controls from Taiwan, China are inflating supply chain redundancy costs for multinational clients. Strategically, if TSMC signals CoWoS capacity expansion at COMPUTEX, it could undercut ASE’s pricing power in AI packaging. Over the next 12–24 months, the real threat isn’t market volatility but geopolitical decoupling: the pace of non-U.S. equipment substitution will dictate whether Taiwan, China can sustain its process leadership. Foreign institutional buying amid the dip reveals a clear bet on this irreplaceable manufacturing moat.
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