Industry Analysis
TSMC’s 30% year-over-year sales surge in May stems from scaled 3nm production and locked-in high-margin orders, reinforcing its dominance in HPC and advanced packaging while forcing upstream EDA, photoresist, and EUV tool suppliers to reallocate capacity. Geopolitically, delayed U.S. CHIPS Act disbursements and tightening export controls from Taiwan, China are raising compliance costs—but also accelerating client diversification away from U.S.-centric tech stacks. With Samsung’s 3nm GAA yield still lagging and Intel’s 18A in validation, TSMC holds a critical window; however, any delay in High-NA EUV deployment for 2nm by 2027 could erode its pricing power. Over the next 12–24 months, sustained AI server and edge-AI demand will create a long-tail pull, yet capital expenditure concentration will squeeze mid-tier foundries, pushing global wafer fabrication toward a ‘one-dominant, two-secondary’ structure.
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