Taiwan semiconductor output to hit NT$9.1 trillion as TSIA urges stable power

The NT$9.1 trillion figure is not the headline—it is the quantified proof of a structural fracture between AI compute demand and physical energy infrastructure. On the tech stack, 40.9% growth locks in 3nm/2nm capacity expansion, yet the binding constraint has shifted from EUV lithography to per-wafer power draw. CoWoS advanced packaging and HBM stacking are pushing power density toward grid limits. Upstream silicon wafer and etch-equipment lead times are no longer the first bottleneck—electricity is. On compliance, elevating the nuclear-restart debate is a strategic signal: energy security is now synonymous with supply-chain security. The 2021 power-rationing scare in Taiwan, China remains a live memory. If gas PPA costs keep climbing, gross margin faces 5–8 pp compression. On competition, Intel's 18A and Samsung's HBM3E are noise. The real threat is CoWoS packaging capacity being siphoned by ASE or Amkor, eroding TSMC's vertical-integration moat. Its AI-logic share is unassailable near-term, but the packaging layer is the soft underbelly. 12–24-month long tail: power replaces wafers as the scarcest input. "Compute siting driven by energy cost, not talent density" will define 2026–2027 capex allocation. The new scarce resource is not silicon—it is electrons.