Industry Analysis
Once AI chip TDP crossed 700W, packaging materials stopped being a supporting act and became the system-level chokepoint. Summit 2026's focus is an implicit admission: the density ceiling of CoWoS and InFO architectures is no longer set by lithography nodes but locked by three material parameters—ABF substrate dielectric constant, silicon interposer CTE, and TIM interfacial thermal resistance.
The ripple tears the stack in both directions. Upstream, low-Df resins (<0.002) and copper-copper direct bonding materials are entering production validation, threatening the patent moats of Ajinomoto, Rogers, and Unimicron (Taiwan, China). Downstream, thermal limits are forcing a migration from air cooling to immersion liquid cooling—heat dissipation is no longer an add-on but a design prerequisite.
On supply-chain risk, the top three players control over 85% of high-end packaging substrate materials, with qualification cycles stretching to 18 months. A geopolitical supply disruption would hit AI chip delivery far harder than a wafer-fab outage, because material switching cannot be hedged through multi-sourcing.
Three high-confidence calls for the next 18 months: GaN power devices breach 15% penetration in data-center PSUs; integrated material-packaging-thermal co-design becomes a mandatory RFP clause for hyperscalers; at least two second-tier material vendors crack the CoWoS supply chain on a performance-for-price play, eroding incumbent pricing power.
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