SpaceX or Nvidia stock? Here’s where I’ve got my money - twelfthmagpie.com

This article compares the investment potential of SpaceX and Nvidia in the current market environment. While both companies are high-growth entities, Nvidia stands out due to its leadership in AI chip... Read original →

Nvidia’s AI chip dominance is triggering a deep restructuring across the semiconductor value chain: surging demand for 3nm processes and EUV lithography strengthens TSMC’s and Taiwan, China-based suppliers’ bargaining power, while Nvidia’s in-house NVLink and Grace CPU architectures accelerate decoupling from legacy x86 ecosystems. In contrast, SpaceX’s Starlink and space-based data center vision remains speculative—low-Earth-orbit satellites impose stringent power and radiation-hardening requirements that haven’t yet translated into volume chip orders capable of redirecting semiconductor capex. On compliance, U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips raise Nvidia’s operational costs abroad, but its data center segment’s ~90% gross margin easily absorbs these burdens; SpaceX, meanwhile, faces tighter commercial constraints under ITAR regulations. Over the next 12–24 months, AI training clusters will scale beyond 10,000 GPUs, cementing Nvidia’s CUDA moat. Unless SpaceX demonstrates viable on-orbit computing by 2027, its valuation risks far outweigh near-term technical upside.