SK Hynix says 2027 will be the 'worst year' for memory shortage, forecasts crunch to last until 2030

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung forecasts 2027 as the worst year for ongoing memory shortages, with the situation expected to persist until 2030. This prediction follows SK Hynix's record $26.5 billion U.S... Read original →

SK Hynix’s warning that 2027 will be the nadir of the memory shortage stems from AI accelerators’ insatiable demand for HBM, which consumes 3–5× more wafer area than DDR5 and requires multi-layer EUV—a bottleneck even for leading fabs. This forces Samsung and Micron to fast-track advanced packaging (e.g., CoWoS alternatives) while Intel pushes Foveros to reduce HBM reliance. Geopolitically, U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies ease capex but export controls inflate global supply chain redundancy costs. Market tactics have shifted from spot pricing to long-term agreements (LTAs), effectively turning SK Hynix’s deals with Nvidia and Microsoft into capacity call options. Over the next 12–24 months, even if consumer DRAM remains weak, HBM4 ramp-up will sustain elevated ASPs—yet any AI capex slowdown could trigger a 2028 inventory correction, creating a bifurcated market: tight at the high end, glutted elsewhere.