Industry Analysis
The 2026 semiconductor ETF surge is fueled by AI’s insatiable demand for DRAM and EUV lithography. Technologically, HBM3e adoption is forcing DRAM makers to rush 1β/1γ nodes, while EUV delivery bottlenecks are distorting mature-node capacity allocation—creating a new supply-chain kink. Regulatory pressures, especially U.S. export controls, compel foundries in Taiwan, China and mainland China to rebuild tooling chains, inflating capex by over 15%. Strategically, Samsung is expanding DRAM capacity at the cycle trough to pressure Micron and SK Hynix’s cash flow, while ASML locks clients via EUV-as-a-service, neutralizing Nikon’s DUV price warfare. Over the next 12–24 months, ETF flows will favor firms with equipment self-reliance (Applied Materials, Lam) and memory integration (Micron), while pure-play foundry stocks face valuation discounts.
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