SEMI lifts 2028 wafer fab equipment forecast to US$220 billion

SEMI's upward revision of the 2028 global wafer fab equipment forecast to $220 billion signals a robust resurgence in semiconductor capital expenditure. Technologically, this uptick in advanced logic and memory investments will directly fuel demand for high-end tools such as EUV, CVD, and PVD systems, particularly accelerating capacity expansion among manufacturers in Taiwan, China and South Korea. From a compliance standpoint, geopolitical tensions are intensifying supply chain realignment, imposing higher scrutiny on export controls and escalating operational costs for equipment vendors. In market dynamics, Western firms may leverage technical barriers to strengthen control over critical nodes, while Chinese players might accelerate domestic substitution to mitigate risks. Over the next 12–24 months, this surge in equipment orders is expected to stimulate upstream material and software sectors, creating a positive feedback loop. This wave of investment suggests the onset of a new technology cycle, especially in AI chips and advanced packaging, where equipment spending will be a key enabler.