Samsung, SK Hynix invest KRW110 trillion as memory supply boost slips to 2028

The two-year gap between 2026's record capex and 2028's actual supply ramp is the most underpriced variable in this cycle. DRAM is a capacity-is-pricing market—both the 2018-19 and 2022-23 downturns confirmed that once the supply curve shifts right, price elasticity amplifies violently. The real risk isn't investment magnitude; it's the synchronized 2028 landing of Korean greenfield fabs and CXMT's expansion. Constrained by lithography access, CXMT's output will likely peg at DDR4/early-DDR5 commodity grades, meaning the 2028 price war will strike the thinnest-margin segment of Samsung and SK Hynix's P&L precisely, while HBM pricing power actually hardens due to competitor absence. Upstream, the 2026-27 equipment procurement wave will stretch etch and thin-film deposition lead times. Downstream, AI accelerator BOM costs won't see meaningful relief before 2027, reinforcing hyperscalers' incentive to lock long-term agreements. Strategically, Samsung is cross-subsidizing memory capex through foundry losses; SK Hynix is betting on pushing HBM share past 60% to hedge commodity cyclicality; Micron will almost certainly hold the niche and skip the race. 12-24 month call: commodity DRAM contract prices hold elevated through Q2 2027, then a supply cliff in H1 2028 could drive ASP down 15-25% in a single quarter. The moat isn't wafer volume—it's HBM packaging yield and customer lock-in depth.