Samsung sees tripled HBM4 sales in 3Q26; HBM share to reach parity with DRAM position

The surge in HBM4 sales reflects a fundamental shift in demand dynamics driven by AI compute requirements. Samsung's technological lead enables it to capture DRAM market share, creating a dual-market dominance. Upstream EUV and advanced process nodes support HBM4 scaling, while downstream AI data centers fuel demand. However, geopolitical tensions, especially under U.S. export controls affecting Taiwan, pose supply chain risks. Competitors like Micron and Infineon may accelerate in-house HBM development to counter Samsung’s dominance. Over the next 12 months, the HBM market will face intense competition in both technology and capacity. If Samsung fails to sustain cost leadership, its market expansion may stall. In the long term, parity between HBM and DRAM positions signals a maturing storage sector, where competition shifts from speed to efficiency and cost optimization.