Industry Analysis
Samsung’s dominance in DRAM and NAND provides a cashflow moat for its AI-era transition, yet SK hynix has seized the strategic high ground with 58% HBM market share. Technically, HBM’s reliance on TSV and CoWoS packaging is forcing TSMC and ASE to accelerate capacity alignment; if Samsung fails to mass-produce HBM4 and resolve TSV yield issues by 2027, its legacy memory lead may not translate into AI gains. Geopolitically, tightening U.S.-Japan-Netherlands equipment controls raise both EUV access delays and material traceability costs for Korean HBM expansion. In response, Micron—backed by CHIPS Act subsidies—is partnering with Broadcom on CXL+HBM heterogeneous architectures to bypass Korean IP walls. Over the next 18 months, HBM will shift from performance-centric to power-efficiency-driven designs: SK hynix leads by half a node, but Samsung’s vertical integration could enable a PIM-based counterstrike.
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