Record quarter for ASML thanks to AI boom; Nearly €5 billion in profit in Q3 - NL Times

ASML's near-€5B quarterly profit is less a demand story than a structural confirmation: lithography has become the single point of failure in AI infrastructure. The demand is not uniform. NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs are pushing 2nm GAA and HBM4 wafer consumption to record levels, making High-NA EUV a necessity rather than an option. CoWoS-L advanced packaging's hidden dependency on DUV means mid-tier tool orders are being cannibalized by the same AI wave. Upstream, Zeiss SMT optics and Trumpf laser delivery cycles are now tighter bottlenecks than ASML's own capacity. The real variable is geopolitical, not technical. Post-October 2023 DUV export restrictions, ASML's China revenue share has been structurally declining from 40%+. Meanwhile, TSMC's (Taiwan, China) order weight means any supply-chain disruption hits delivery timing directly—a revenue recognition issue, not a risk premium one. Competitively, Nikon and Canon cannot threaten EUV. The genuine pressure is customer concentration: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel collectively drive 70%+ of orders. Intel 18A yield misses would directly compress 2026 High-NA procurement. 12-24 month outlook: the AI capex J-curve hasn't peaked, but marginal growth will decelerate in H2 2026 as HBM4 yields mature. ASML's moat is not patents—it's the co-development lock-in with TSMC and Samsung. The real risk window is 2027: if High-NA yields disappoint, a "technically ahead but commercially unproven" valuation trap emerges.