Power semiconductor market trends - Sourceability

The power semiconductor sector is pivoting from scarcity premium to a structural overcapacity-and-iteration regime. The real signal isn't demand volume—it's the 30%+ ASP erosion in SiC MOSFETs over 18 months, which fundamentally breaks the Wolfspeed-style vertical-integration thesis. On the technology stack, 800V EV platforms and AI data-center 800VDC architectures are pulling GaN into industrial-grade applications, while SiC 8-inch substrate mass production (2025-26) will compress device costs by another 20%. Upstream substrate overcapacity risk has already preceded the device layer. Compliance-wise, US export controls on SiC epitaxy equipment and the EU's CBAM carbon levy are reshaping fab-location calculus. Chinese players are exploiting local automotive certification windows to seize share, though reliability-data accumulation remains their structural weakness. Competitive dynamics: Infineon and ST will likely optimize SiC line utilization by H2 2025. China's 650V SiC MOSFETs have already broken below $8/unit, setting a new global price anchor. 12-24 month outlook: the industry is fragmenting into a technology tier—high-end (>1200V, automotive) stays with EU/US/Japan, while mid-low segments get flooded by Chinese capacity. The M&A window is open; expect at least one $5B+ consolidation deal within the year.