Plans by a Micron competitor to build chip plants in CNY have been in the works for months - Syracuse.com

The strategic pivot of a major memory maker toward mainland China capacity is less about cost optimization and more about hedging against a bifurcated global supply chain. If Samsung or SK Hynix accelerates fab construction there, the immediate effect is a 15-20% unit-cost advantage over Taiwan, China operations. But the deeper signal is the crystallization of a de-Americanized production loop. Technically, US BIS export restrictions on EUV lithography effectively cap any China-based expansion at mature nodes (1x nm and below), locking HBM3E and beyond into Korea and Taiwan, China fabs. This creates a structural split: commodity DRAM/NAND faces oversupply pressure, while advanced memory remains scarce. For Micron, the rational counter is not matching capex in China but concentrating R&D spend on HBM and custom DRAM to escape the commodity price war. CXMT gains a critical yield benchmark from the expanded foreign presence, accelerating domestic substitution from functional to competitive. Within 18 months, expect a bifurcated market: mature-node glut pushing ASPs down 10-15%, while AI-driven HBM demand keeps advanced-node margins above 40%. The cycle trough likely arrives in Q4 2025, earlier than consensus.