Phison CEO sees years of NAND shortage, AI growth chance

The ongoing NAND flash shortage is not a temporary disruption but a structural misalignment triggered by the surge in AI-driven demand. Pua Khein-Seng’s remarks highlight a shift from cyclical to sustained supply constraints, especially amid slowing 3D NAND development and delayed advanced process adoption. Upstream suppliers like silicon wafer and photoresist vendors face sustained cost pressures, while midstream packaging and testing segments may see elevated service fees due to capacity bottlenecks. Geopolitical dynamics, particularly the U.S.-China tech decoupling, are accelerating supply chain localization strategies, compelling firms to reassess reliance on overseas production. Competitors may pursue vertical integration or M&A to secure scarce capacity and maintain market dominance. Over the next 12 to 24 months, NAND pricing is expected to remain elevated with volatility, while AI servers and data centers continue driving demand, creating a high-margin yet high-risk investment landscape.