Industry Analysis
The AI chip demand surge is triggering a technical recalibration: HBM slowdown reveals a mismatch between advanced packaging and EUV capacity, pushing SK Hynix to shift toward higher-margin DRAM and indirectly dampening sub-3nm logic capex. Tightening U.S.-EU export controls on AI infrastructure, coupled with constrained mature-node capacity in Taiwan, China, will inflate global supply chain redundancy costs. Strategically, NVIDIA may accelerate custom GPU deals to lock in hyperscalers like Meta, while Samsung and Micron could expand NAND share to hedge HBM volatility. Over the next 12–24 months, the sector faces a 'phantom demand' correction—only firms with heterogeneous integration capabilities and geopolitically neutral fabs will endure. This pullback isn’t a trend reversal but a structural realignment.
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