Onsemi halts billion-dollar project in Czechia: Planned SiC expansion worth up to two billion dollars canceled - igor´sLAB

Onsemi's cancellation of its $2B Czech SiC expansion is not a routine cost trim—it is the closing bell on the compound semiconductor land-grab era. Between 2021 and 2023, four majors simultaneously committed billions to SiC fabs, betting on a compressed 800V platform adoption window. That window has stretched. European and US EV penetration growth has decelerated from a projected 15% to under 8%, and the capex-to-revenue model no longer clears the hurdle. The technical ripple hits substrate suppliers first. Coherent and Wolfspeed will see 6-inch SiC wafer order visibility compress, with 2025 substrate pricing likely sliding 20–30%. Downstream, Tier-1s locked into Onsemi's SiC MOSFET delivery schedules will renegotiate, with volume migrating to Infineon's Roith plant or ST's Catania facility. Infineon is the clearest strategic winner. Onsemi's exit from EU-based manufacturing surrenders the local-to-local delivery advantage that automakers increasingly demand. Wolfspeed occupies an awkward middle: short-term substrate volume benefits, but a structurally smaller device market long-term. Over the next 18 months, expect SiC to enter a capacity-clearance and generational-transition overlap. Onsemi will likely pivot capex toward SiC module packaging and AI data-center power rather than raw wafer output. The idle Czech lines will probably be sold or converted to foundry service—echoing the 2008 LED overcapacity cycle.