Industry Analysis
India’s NITI Aayog semiconductor roadmap to 2035 is less an industrial ambition than a defensive maneuver under geopolitical decoupling pressure. Technically, domestic wafer fabs would force EDA, packaging, and materials supply chains to reconfigure in South Asia—yet sub-7nm nodes will still rely on Taiwan, China and Korea for years. Regulatory risks loom large: India may mimic the U.S. CHIPS Act with localization mandates, raising compliance costs and triggering export control scrutiny. Strategically, TSMC and Samsung are fast-tracking India fab assessments, while mainland Chinese foundries risk exclusion from this emerging ecosystem. Over the next 12–24 months, India will likely lure assembly/test and power semiconductor investments via tax breaks, but chronic talent shortages and infrastructure gaps will cap its ascent beyond mature nodes—locking it into a ‘low-end autonomy, high-end dependency’ trap.
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