Nvidia's answer to custom silicon is the half of the market that will never build any

Nvidia's ecosystem is encountering a critical fracture. The move by OpenAI and Anthropic to develop their own chips signals a shift toward decentralized large model training, undermining Nvidia’s dominance in high-end computing. This not only affects upstream suppliers like FPGAs and memory firms but also risks reshaping the global semiconductor supply chain. With tightened U.S. export controls on China, companies are accelerating localization strategies to ensure supply chain resilience. Competitors such as AMD, Intel, and Horizon are ramping up their own chip development efforts to capture emerging market share. Within the next 12 months, custom silicon will become the norm, forcing Nvidia to navigate between ecosystem openness and technological exclusivity—otherwise, it risks significant market share erosion.