Nomura Keeps Bullish Target Prices for Samsung and SK hynix - Businesskorea

Nomura's reiterated bullish stance on Samsung and SK hynix is less a cyclical call than a structural re-rating: memory is migrating from commodity logic to AI-infrastructure logic. HBM4's 3D stacking will push TSV aspect ratios and hybrid-bonding yields to new extremes, forcing Applied Materials and Lam Research to accelerate advanced-packaging equipment roadmaps well before 2026. The undercurrent matters more: US export controls are reshaping Korea's cost base. Samsung's Taylor fab and SK hynix's Wuxi site now carry compliance-audit and equipment-depreciation burdens exceeding 15% of capex. Micron trails by two quarters on HBM3E, yet its 1-gamma DRAM yield edge could compress the HBM4 window dramatically—Samsung must lock NVIDIA's HBM4 qualification by Q4 2025 or cede the generational premium to a rival that is closing fast. The real variable over the next 18 months is not demand; it is the capacity tug-of-war between HBM and conventional DRAM. Whoever ramps hybrid-bonding lines first owns the pricing power, and the rest of the supply chain prices around that anchor.