Industry Analysis
The U.S.-Iran détente is merely a sentiment catalyst; the real driver is AI data centers' insatiable demand for HBM-class DRAM. Technically, yield ramp challenges in HBM3E/HBM4 are forcing Samsung and SK Hynix to accelerate EUV-based stacking processes, while Micron’s lead in 1β-node production has quietly secured over 30% AI server DRAM share. On compliance, U.S. export controls remain tight—especially on lithography tools—effectively sidelining wafer capacity from Taiwan, China and mainland China, inflating global allocation premiums. Strategically, Samsung may divert logic fab CapEx to memory, while WD and Kioxia will push QLC NAND into CXL memory pools. Over the next 18 months, aggressive capacity expansions will mask looming oversupply; if AI cluster deployment slows, a sharp inventory correction is likely by H2 2027.
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