Industry Analysis
Surging AI memory demand is reshaping DRAM roadmaps, with HBM4 integration into 3nm EUV processes accelerating advanced packaging bottlenecks—TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is now the critical constraint. Geopolitically, SK Hynix faces mounting regulatory scrutiny in Korea and export control volatility, undermining supply chain reliability despite its NVIDIA partnership. Micron, by contrast, leverages CHIPS Act subsidies and onshore manufacturing to secure tariff advantages and customer trust. With Micron achieving superior HBM3E yields, SK Hynix may rush HBM4 sampling to retain technical credibility—but its capex runway is tightening. Over the next 18 months, U.S.-led 'trusted supply chain' initiatives will prioritize domestic memory vendors, enabling Micron to lock in cloud hyperscalers like AWS and Microsoft while potentially embedding itself into Taiwan, China’s HBM packaging ecosystem for sustained advantage.
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