Industry Analysis
Micron’s record profits reflect a systemic surge in AI infrastructure demand, not just cyclical memory strength. The HBM frenzy is forcing upstream adoption of EUV and 3nm-class advanced packaging, pulling TSMC and Samsung deeper into CoWoS and hybrid bonding investments. Yet geopolitical friction is inflating compliance costs—U.S. export controls have already redirected Micron’s HBM capacity to Japan and India, though new fabs won’t ramp until 2028, creating a window for SK Hynix to gain share. With Micron’s entire 2026 output pre-sold, Samsung will likely accelerate HBM4 development and use pricing leverage to court Meta and Microsoft. Over the next 18 months, the HBM market risks a ‘phantom boom’: aggressive capex may outpace actual AI chip deployment, triggering inventory corrections by late 2027 as model training yields diminishing returns.
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