Memory chip supercycle 2026: what is driving the DRAM, HBM rally - ig.com

In 2026, the memory chip market has experienced a significant rally, particularly in DRAM and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), driven by surging demand from artificial intelligence. As AI model training a... Read original →

The 2026 memory supercycle stems from AI’s structural hunger for bandwidth, not cyclical inventory swings. HBM and advanced DRAM have become the 'oxygen' for AI accelerators, tightly coupling TSMC’s CoWoS capacity with Samsung and SK Hynix’s EUV-based 3nm DRAM lines—straining equipment lead times and reshaping server BOM economics. Geopolitical friction inflates compliance costs: while U.S. export controls don’t explicitly ban HBM, they raise barriers for Chinese players like CXMT and YMTC to access critical tools. Apple’s potential sourcing shift could trigger fresh supply chain scrutiny. Unusually, Korean and U.S. firms are exercising capex discipline, using LTAs to lock in pricing and dampen historical volatility. Over the next 12–24 months, even as new capacity comes online, AI cluster deployment inertia will sustain HBM premiums—but commodity DRAM may correct first. The real tail risk? Algorithmic breakthroughs (e.g., sparse training) that slash memory demand, turning today’s high-cost inventory into tomorrow’s write-downs.