‘Megaproject’ breaks ground at Samsung HBM plant - The Korea Herald

Samsung's HBM "megaproject" groundbreaking is a pricing-power declaration, not a capacity story. SK Hynix has monopolized NVIDIA's supply chain for two years on HBM3E yield, commanding roughly 70% gross margin per stack. Samsung's expansion targets one thing: dragging HBM from scarce commodity back to bulk-commodity pricing logic. Technically, this line's real leverage sits in hybrid bonding and TSV deep-silicon etch yield curves. If Samsung pushes HBM4 bonding layers beyond 16 by 2026, the order structure for ABF substrates, underfill materials, and Besi/ASMPT bonding equipment gets completely restructured. On compliance, regardless of whether the fab lands in Korea or Taiwan, China, BIS export licensing on advanced packaging equipment remains the hidden bottleneck. The Q3 2025 review window could throttle delivery cadence. Strategic read: SK Hynix will almost certainly accelerate HBM4 qualification in H2 2025, locking in first-to-certify status on the next-gen platform. Micron, already NVIDIA-qualified on HBM3E, will push utilization to ceiling by Q1 2026. Samsung's window is 12-18 months, no more. Long-tail call: by mid-2026, global HBM monthly capacity may breach 800K wafer-equivalents while AI accelerator demand absorbs 600-650K. Structural oversupply hits for the first time. HBM ASP annual decline could jump from 5-8% to 15-20%. Samsung isn't betting on demand. It's betting on capex depth competitors won't match.