Mature-node DRAM momentum stays strong into 4Q26

The mature-node memory price rally is fundamentally a capacity-siphoning story, not a demand story. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have redirected virtually all capex toward HBM and leading-edge DRAM, leaving legacy 40-60nm lines in a maintain-only, no-expansion limbo. The structural premium is supply-driven, not pull-driven. NOR Flash and SLC NAND are locked into process nodes with no near-term substitute. Automotive MCU and industrial IoT demand is inelastic. A 30% quarterly revenue jump signals buyers have shifted from negotiating to scrambling, with inventory cycles compressed to historic lows. Strategically, Winbond, Nanya, and CXMT are absorbing the share vacated by the big three. But the 2019 NOR Flash boom-bust cycle is the template to watch: when mainland China's mature DRAM capacity comes online in concentrated volume around 2027, the current premium will collapse rapidly. On the compliance front, export restrictions on advanced nodes have paradoxically accelerated the geographic concentration of mature-node production in Asia, creating a de facto dual-track supply chain. Tier-1 customers will make multi-sourcing a non-negotiable procurement standard through 2027. Verdict: the seller's market holds for the next 18 months, but the window is finite. 2027 is the inflection point.