Mature-node chip scramble may persist through 2028 as supply chain management becomes bargaining leverage

The shortage in mature-node chip supply is not an isolated incident but a cascading effect of advanced-process capacity constraints. Rising demand for mature-process chips in AI peripheral applications, coupled with global supply chain realignment, has created a misalignment in capacity allocation. Technologically, design firms are adjusting architectures toward more manufacturable nodes, extending product lifecycles. From a compliance standpoint, geopolitical tensions are forcing companies to reassess supply chain security, especially in critical materials and equipment procurement, significantly increasing operational costs. In competitive dynamics, leading players are securing capacity through vertical integration and long-term contracts, while mid-sized design firms face marginalization risks. Over the next two years, this imbalance will intensify, particularly in automotive and industrial control sectors, with chip prices likely to remain elevated, creating a persistent structural inflationary trend. This is not merely a capacity issue but a signal of a broader reshaping of the global semiconductor landscape.