Industry Analysis
Samsung's 46 trillion won commitment to Onyang is not merely capacity expansion; it is a strategic counter-offensive against SK Hynix's HBM3E dominance. By vertically integrating DRAM and advanced packaging, Samsung aims to dismantle the TSV process bottleneck, forcing upstream equipment vendors to accelerate R&D. However, this massive capex significantly elevates depreciation burdens. If AI demand growth slows, the resulting oversupply will trigger a severe margin compression, turning a technological advantage into a financial liability. In the competitive landscape, SK Hynix will likely deepen its exclusive ties with NVIDIA to fortify its moat, while Micron must hasten HBM3 mass production to retain market share. Over the next 18 months, HBM will transition from a scarce asset to a commoditized product. The inevitable price war will normalize industry margins, making rapid technological iteration the sole determinant of survival rather than mere production volume.
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