Is Micron Stock a Buy After Its Jaw-Dropping Rally? - The Motley Fool

Micron Technology has experienced an extraordinary stock rally, surging 116% in just over a month and a half since hitting a three-month low in April. This surge is driven by strong demand for memory ... Read original →

Micron’s stock surge reflects structural AI-driven demand for HBM, not speculative froth. Technically, HBM3E/4 adoption hinges on TSMC’s CoWoS capacity, where interposer and TSV bottlenecks persist despite Micron’s yield gains. Compliance-wise, U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies ease capex but export controls inflate China-based test/pack costs, forcing irreversible supply chain regionalization. Competitively, Samsung may deploy GDDR7 as a low-cost HBM alternative, while TSMC could leverage CoWoS allocation to lock in NVIDIA/AMD, weakening Micron’s pricing power. Although the HBM market may triple by 2028, memory’s inherent cyclicality remains dominant. The current 13.7x forward P/E appears cheap but likely prices in a 2026 oversupply correction. Ignoring wafer ramp rates and customer inventory levels risks buying the peak.