Infineon expects more than 20% growth as data centre power nears €4 billion - Evertiq

Infineon's data centre power segment nearing €4B is not a linear AI capex story—it's a structural repricing of the power semiconductor value chain. Technical cascade: The 800V DC architecture shift is systematically displacing 48V Si MOSFET designs. SiC and GaN penetration will accelerate, but upstream substrate supply (Wolfspeed, Taiwan, China's TSMC-adjacent players) remains the binding constraint. Downstream, NVIDIA's next-gen GPU power delivery requirements have cascaded into tier-3 suppliers, with power module packaging capturing the largest value share. Compliance exposure: Roughly a quarter of Infineon's revenue is China-linked. BIS export controls are extending from advanced logic toward power semi packaging equipment. EU Chips Act subsidies carry a 3-5 year disbursement lag against already-committed 2025 capex—a cash-flow mismatch the market is underpricing. Competitive dynamics: ST and ON Semi will fight over 800V DC standard-setting influence. TI is positioning digital power controllers to decouple Infineon's analog-plus-power bundling advantage. China's StarPower has achieved IGBT production parity; the SiC gap is narrowing faster than Western models suggest. 18-month outlook: AI power modules will climb from roughly 8% to 15% of server BOM cost, fundamentally shifting Infineon's pricing power. But if 2026 AI capex growth decelerates to single digits, the power semi inventory correction will be steeper than 2023's. That is the hidden risk no one is pricing in.