If Jensen Huang Is Right About This One Thing, NVIDIA Stock Is a Steal at $200 - AOL.com

This article analyzes NVIDIA's stock valuation in light of CEO Jensen Huang's predictions about the AI hardware supply-demand imbalance. Despite NVIDIA's over 70% sales growth and strong margins, its ... Read original →

If Jensen Huang’s supply-demand imbalance thesis holds, it will trigger a cascade across the AI stack: upstream HBM and advanced packaging bottlenecks will intensify, forcing downstream LLM developers to re-architect inference workloads around GPU scarcity. U.S. export controls have already raised NVIDIA’s compliance costs by over 15%, while reliance on foundries in Taiwan, China heightens supply chain fragility. AMD’s MI300X gains and OpenAI’s rumored in-house chips pressure NVIDIA, which counters by deepening CUDA lock-in—though emerging architectures like Claude Mythos could erode that moat. Over the next 18 months, if AI training demand grows >40% annually against only ~30% CoWoS capacity expansion at TSMC, GPU premiums will persist, sustaining NVIDIA’s gross margins above 75%. At 31x P/E, the stock is undervalued—unless geopolitical fragmentation fractures the global semiconductor market further.