Industry Analysis
Goldman’s bullish stance on NVIDIA reflects a structural alignment between surging AI compute demand and advanced-node scaling. The rollout of 3nm and EUV lithography is triggering cascading effects: ASML’s tool backlog swells, while cloud providers rush to deploy H100/B100 clusters, pushing the entire HPC stack toward higher performance-per-watt. Yet escalating U.S. export controls elevate geopolitical risk premiums for foundries like TSMC (Taiwan, China), compelling NVIDIA to build costly supply-chain redundancies. In response, AMD and Intel are targeting AI inference with MI300X and Gaudi3—but CUDA’s ecosystem moat remains unbreachable in the near term. Over the next 12–24 months, leadership will hinge on dual-track capabilities: heterogeneous integration prowess and geographically diversified manufacturing.
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