Goldman Sachs DRAM Sentiment Indicator: Price expectations for conventional memory and HBM have been reset and are beginning to recover - 富途牛牛

Goldman Sachs' latest DRAM Sentiment Indicator signals a pivotal inflection point in the memory chip market. The report indicates that price expectations for both conventional DRAM and High Bandwidth ... Read original →

This reset is not a cyclical repair—it is a structural transfer of pricing power. HBM's slide from scarce premium product to standardized high-performance component is accelerating faster than consensus models assumed. Once HBM3E yields cross 85% and HBM4 enters engineering validation, the supplier-side information asymmetry that sustained the 2024 pricing spike is being systematically eroded by buyer-side sentiment aggregation. The deeper structural tension: HBM fab lines physically cannibalize conventional DRAM wafer capacity. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will contest 2025-26 capacity allocation ratios, and that ratio—not demand forecasts—will set the floor for commodity memory pricing. The real risk is not price direction but the J-curve of AI infrastructure capex. If hyperscaler GPU cluster deployment decelerates in 2026, HBM demand collapses from structural growth into a cyclical pulse, and already-expanded HBM capacity replicates the 2023 NAND inventory glut. Over the next 12-24 months, the critical variable shifts from 'when do prices recover' to 'who owns the TSV stacking and advanced packaging yield moat at the HBM4 node.' That, not sentiment indicators, is the true watershed for the next competitive round.