Geopolitics disrupts chips — can Taiwan and South Korea cooperate to hold the line?

Any attempt by TSMC and Samsung to forge technical cooperation amid geopolitical fractures faces structural roadblocks. U.S. export controls effectively block shared access to EUV lithography or advanced 3D packaging, risking heightened scrutiny rather than synergy. Both foundries are now forced into parallel, redundant supply chains—TSMC expanding in Arizona and Japan, Samsung doubling down in Texas and Pyeongtaek—lifting capex by over 15%. Flagship clients like Apple and NVIDIA will absorb the cost of fragmented capacity and delayed yield ramps. Over the next 18 months, U.S.-China decoupling will intensify 'chip sovereignty' races, empowering Japan, Korea, and the Netherlands in materials and equipment, while China accelerates mature-node self-reliance—creating a new normal of 28nm+ oversupply alongside persistent sub-7nm shortages.