Former Samsung semiconductor head warns that memory prices and demand could fall sharply after 2028

Kye-hyun Kyung’s warning signals the end of memory’s easy growth era. As HBM4 and DDR6 approach physical scaling limits, AI chip architectures are forcing a shift from capacity-centric to bandwidth-energy co-optimization—rewiring upstream materials (e.g., high-purity silicon) and downstream server design. Tightening U.S.-ROK export controls inflate compliance costs for Samsung and SK Hynix in China, while CXMT and YMTC accelerate domestic substitution, risking overcapacity by 2027. Micron has already curbed capex; if Samsung persists in aggressive expansion, it may trigger a brutal price war post-2028. The next 12–24 months will mask fragility: AI-driven orders create short-term euphoria, but enterprise clients are adopting leaner inventory policies. Once HBM adoption plateaus, DRAM/NAND pricing could collapse abruptly.